Currency Currents - October 30, 2009

Key News
• Retail sales in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, unexpectedly fell for a second month in September. (Bloomberg)
• China will sustain its economic rebound this quarter and growth is likely to top the government’s 8 percent target for 2009, the central bank said. (Bloomberg)
• Japan’s unemployment rate fell for the second straight month. (Reuters)
• South Africa’s government policy is not determined by the ruling African National Congress’ labour and communist allies, President Jacob Zuma said on Friday. (Reuters)

Quotable

1 WITCH. Thrice the brinded cat hath mew’d.
2 WITCH. Thrice and once, the hedge-pig whin’d.
3 WITCH. Harpier cries:—’tis time! ’tis time!
1 WITCH. Round about the caldron go;
In the poison’d entrails throw.—
Toad, that under cold stone,
Days and nights has thirty-one;
Swelter’d venom sleeping got,
Boil thou first i’ the charmed pot!
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Fillet of a fenny snake,
In the caldron boil and bake;
Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting,
Lizard’s leg, and owlet’s wing,—
For a charm of powerful trouble,
Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
3 WITCH. Scale of dragon; tooth of wolf;
Witches’ mummy; maw and gulf
Of the ravin’d salt-sea shark;
Root of hemlock digg’d i the dark;
Liver of blaspheming Jew;
Gall of goat, and slips of yew
Sliver’d in the moon’s eclipse;
Nose of Turk, and Tartar’s lips;
Finger of birth-strangled babe
Ditch-deliver’d by a drab,—
Make the gruel thick and slab:
Add thereto a tiger’s chaudron,
For the ingrediants of our caldron.
ALL. Double, double toil and trouble;
Fire burn, and caldron bubble.
2 WITCH. Cool it with a baboon’s blood,
Then the charm is firm and good.

William Shakespeare

FX Trading – Things that still frighten us on Halloween Eve
We are quite happy to see the IMF upgraded Asian growth. We were pleasantly surprised with the better than expected GDP report yesterday. We are looking forward to eating belling busting barrels of candy tomorrow. But there are still a few items that frighten us when we do our stream of consciousness thing:

• US consumer still groggy after US government dolling out massive amounts of candy
• Lending to non-bank private sector negative after $17 trillion global government stimulus
• Moody’s warning on Greece and Portugal finance
• Crude a bit sticky near $80, despite “blow out” US GDP
• US housing market still in the doldrums
• US commercial real estate shoe might be dropping
• 47% vacancy rates in Chinese commercial real estate
• Emerging stock markets looking topping and mutual fund flows subsiding
• Central banks collectively tightening at the margin
• Global cooling cycle now upon us at peak of tree-hugger climate change hysteria
• US government across-the-board
• Conditions of TSTBTBTF Banks (Too small to be too big to fail)
• Larry Summers and his stupid policies and ideas
• A belief a lower dollar cures US ills
• A replay of stock market action similar to the 1929-30 pattern
• Yankees still have a chance to win the World Series
• Latvia contagion
• Being asked to dig in the Victory Garden
• Gold prices over $1,000
• Russian oligarchs with FBI escorts
• Czars of any kind
• The Government of Goldman Sachs

In short, a whole bunch of things still out there which appear risk aversion like.

S&P 500 Index (black line) vs. US $ Index (red line) Daily:
image0043

No follow-through yet from the big gains yesterday…hmmmm…stay tuned.

Happy Halloween!

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com

Black Swan Currency Currents - October 30, 2009

We continue to pull off some sweet trades in our Forex & Currency Futures Service….

Yesterday Jack and JR took profits in the New Zealand dollar and Euro…this morning they grabbed a small gain in the Euro-Pound cross and have some interesting trade setups working….

If you are interested in a spot forex and currency futures service that provides actionable recommendations for both short-term and position traders, plus provides trading rationales based on both technical and fundamental setups, you might want to consider giving our service a try. You can learn more about Black Swan’s Forex & Currency Futures service by clicking here.

Regards,

David Newman, Director of Sales and Marketing, Black Swan Capital dnewman@blackswantrading.com

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