Black Swan Capital

Currency Currents

Currency Currents - July 1 2009

Key News
• The official Chinese Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 53.2 in June from 53.1 in May, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said today in Beijing in an e-mailed statement. (Bloomberg)
• Sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers (Tankan) rose less than estimated in June.
• German machinery and factory equipment orders were down 48 percent on the year in May. Orders from inside Germany fell by 42 percent, while those from abroad were down 51 percent.
• India’s exports fell by 29 percent in May. (AP)

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
7:00 a.m. Jun 26 Mortgage Refinance Application Survey: Previous: +5.9%.
8:15 a.m. Jun ADP National Employment Report: Expected: -400K. Previous: -532K.
10:00 a.m. Jun ISM Mfg Index: Expected: 45. Previous: 42.8.
10:00 a.m. June Construction Spending: Expected: -1.0%. Previous: +0.8%.
10:00 a.m. May Pending Home Sales: Expected: -0.5%. Previous: +6.7%.
10:30 a.m. Jun 26 U.S. Energy Dept Oil Inventories

Quotable

“The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes.”
Marcel Proust

FX Trading – Lot of “key days” yesterday or just more head fakes?
A key day reversal is defined by Stockcharts.com as “a one day chart pattern where prices sharply reverse during a trend. In an uptrend, prices open in new highs and then close below the previous day’s closing price. In a downtrend, prices open lower and then close higher. The wider the price range on the key reversal day and the heavier the volume, the greater the odds that a reversal is taking place.”

Crude Oil: